Monday, March 23, 2020

THE PRICE OF NOT STAYING AT HOME

REF: WIKI


The world is never going to be the same again. It is upto us whether the change is for better or for worse.
One infected patient can transmit COVID-19 to ~3 new people (average transmission rate). The virus spreads exponentially. And we might not even not know that we are spreading it. COVID-19 spread even before you have symptoms from it. India is currently in stage-2. It won’t take long before it reaches stage-3. The result would be disastrous and would hunt us for ages. Why?


Population of India: 138,00,04,385 people
If only 0.001% is affected we have: 13,80,005 patients
That is 1,90,440 people with severe cases (13.8%)
And over 55,000 critical cases (4%).

India has around 10 hospital beds per 10,000 people while the global average is 30 beds per 10,000 people (Italy 34). We have around 70,000 ICUs(2008) and ~4000 ventilators. Once they get filled... all critical patients, flu or not, will die.
 Over 50,000 people can end up being dead if just 0.001% of population is affectedThis virus has the potential to affect 60% of world population within a year.
 The graph below is not the real number. It is the number based on people tested. The real number would be worse.




Can we let it die its natural death? Yes, but at a high price. We would end up infecting billions and killing millions. And that is not a one time process. Viruses mutate, and COVID-19 is already mutating. Which means that surviving this one does not guarantee survival from its next generation, and then the next. Herd immunity is not the solution.


So what can we do?

Not often do we get the opportunity to save the world by staying at home. It is a rare opportunity that we should not miss. 

Complete lock down, not the soft ones like Italy, but a stringent one can cut the transmission rate to almost nil. That would give us time, and time is gold. Why?




Sure we cannot lock ourselves for months and let the economy die. Good news is, if we act now, it won’t take months. With government help, within weeks 

  • We can develop faster testing method, conduct massive testing and quarantine potential candidates. 
  • We can train people to identify symptoms early and isolate them. 
  • We can educate people on personal distance, mask wearing, hand washing and disinfecting spaces. 
  • We can also build more facilities for treatment. 



By flattening the curve we can make sure that the hospitals are not running out of their capacity. 
It will give us time to know our enemy and eliminate it with minimum casualty.
Social distancing is not just a theory, it works. Check the simulation by Saptarshi Das
a close up of text on a white background
REF: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/saptarshiprofile_socialdistancing-modeling-simulations-activity-6647500610230988800-2px6


REF# https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

As we slowly release the restrictions after a month, we walk out into a new world. More hygienic, less mass gatherings, stricter travel regulations…but life will go on and slowly even the economy will recover. And maybe by then we would have a medical breakthrough. 

Hopefully this new world would be a better world where we realise the value of life and nature. Hopefully we will slow down and take a break from the rat race. As we accelerate the Global Warming and melt the polar ice, as we keep spreading into remote corners of the globe, we never know which new and deadly creature is lurking in the dark. 
 COVID-19 just a mild warning. We better learn.

For the moment, stay at home… save thousands of life!


REF:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615375/what-is-herd-immunity-and-can-it-stop-the-coronavirus/
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
https://theprint.in/opinion/current-rate-india-30000-covid-19-deaths-may-no-hospital-bed-june-data/385386/?fbclid=IwAR1xO3W9EgL3GcYyxw2Niq4N5Sih3yhFEnYgWgFy1hOB9-PVVbL_bqpSzQc
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/govt-preps-for-spike-in-covid-19-cases-okays-plan-to-make-more-ventilators/story-uOd5YFyqSGun0FeUf0JzCO.html
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2738307/
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.MED.BEDS.ZS




Written by Subhrashis Adhikari

"Engaging and entertaining, this page-turner is remarkable in its narration and will give you a new perspective on various aspects of life. Wellresearched and heartfelt, the encouraging tone throughout the book tries to motivate towards a happier life." - Times of India

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2 comments:

  1. Hope people will use wisdom to prevent a major outbreak

    ReplyDelete
  2. I hope too... They need to understand the number game and value of time...

    ReplyDelete

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